AUM Growth Likely to Support Ameriprise (AMP) in Q4 Earnings
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and 2023 results on Jan 24, after market close. Its revenues and earnings in the to-be-reported quarter are anticipated to have increased on a year-over-year basis.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by growth in revenues, along with higher assets under management (AUM) and assets under administration (AUA) balances. However, an increase in expenses was a negative.
Ameriprise has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average being 3.6%.
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $7.67 per share, which indicates a rise of 10.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate has been revised marginally lower over the past seven days. Our estimate for earnings is pinned at $7.53.
The consensus estimate for total sales is pegged at $3.87 billion, which indicates a 6.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $3.85 billion.
Estimates & Key Factors to Note for Q4
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMP’s fourth-quarter management and financial advice fees (constituting more than 60% of total net revenues) is pegged at $2.25 billion, which suggests a 5.8% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the same is $2.22 billion.
The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $479 million indicates a year-over-year decline of 9.3%. Our estimate for the same is $475.9 million. The consensus estimate for premiums, policy and contract charges is pegged at $379 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 19.6%. Our estimate for the same is pinned at $382 million.
The consensus estimate for net investment income of $802 million suggests a 39% year-over-year increase. Our estimate for the same is pinned at $778.8 million. The consensus mark for other revenues of $127 million indicates a 1% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is pegged at $134.4 million.
Based on the expectations of improved advisor productivity, the Advice & Wealth Management segment is expected to have recorded growth in assets in the fourth quarter.
Moreover, supported by overall asset inflows, the total AUM balance is likely to have increased. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM and AUA is pegged at $1.24 trillion, indicating an increase of 5.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the metric is $1.22 trillion.
While Ameriprise’s initiatives to focus on cost management have led to controlled general and administration expenses in the past, overall costs are anticipated to have been elevated in the to-be-reported quarter due to costs related to technology upgrades. Our estimate for total expenses is pegged at $3 billion, indicating a rise of 5.4% from the prior-year quarter’s actual.
Earnings Whispers
According to our quantitative model, the chances of Ameriprise beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Ameriprise has an Earnings ESP of +0.39%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
A couple of other finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time, are SEI Investments Company SEIC and Raymond James RJF.
The Earnings ESP for SEIC is +2.40% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. The company is expected to report fourth-quarter and 2023 results on Jan 24.
RJF is scheduled to release quarterly numbers on Jan 24. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +0.55%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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SEI Investments Company (SEIC) : Free Stock Analysis Report
