Aura Minerals Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Aura Minerals Inc. (TSE:ORA) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$417m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 46%, coming in at just US$0.44 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Aura Minerals
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aura Minerals from four analysts is for revenues of US$529.8m in 2024. If met, it would imply a substantial 27% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 297% to US$1.75. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$534.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.77 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CA$14.61, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aura Minerals at CA$19.09 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$12.47. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aura Minerals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 27% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 18% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aura Minerals to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$14.61, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Aura Minerals analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Aura Minerals that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
