Auto inventory recovery will not be uniform — auto analytics company
The first tentative deal between the automakers and the United Auto Workers has been announced, and while inventories for new vehicles are up for the Detroit Three, not all models are up. Automotive research and auto shopper website CarGurus dove into the inventory of the Detroit automakers to look at both the models of cars that have suffered the most inventory declines and the locations around the country that are seeing a decrease in inventories.
Kevin Roberts, CarGurus’ director of industry insights and analytics, tells American Shipper the auto recovery will not be uniform since this UAW strike action was against all three automakers simultaneously and the industry is still trying to recover from reduced inventory levels caused by the semiconductor shortage.
Based on CarGurus’ research, states with the largest inventory declines for the auto models Chevy Colorado, Ford Ranger and GMC small truck Canyon were California, Florida, Texas, Michigan and Ohio.
“Inventory for midsize pickups like the Canyon are down 44%,” said Roberts. “The Chevy Colorado is down a significant 55%. The Ranger is down 45%.”
The largest inventory declines for the Ford Bronco and the Jeep Wrangler can be found in New York, Dallas-Fort Worth, Boston (Manchester, New Hampshire), Houston and Detroit.
“Vehicles impacted by the initial strike on Sept. 15 at Michigan Assembly are below their pre-strike level, with Ford Bronco inventory down 25% and the Ford Ranger down over 50%,” said Roberts.
“It’s important to note that the Ranger inventory was already down pre-strike as production was reduced due to the changeover for the all-new 2024 Ford Ranger and has been declining since May,” said Roberts. “Assuming minimal production restart hiccups, we’re likely to see Ford Bronco and Ranger inventory levels recover to their pre-strike levels in as short of time as mid-November to a long of year-end depending on sales demand.”
But on a bright note, looking at Ford’s overall inventory, new inventory has actually gone up since the start of the strike by 16%.
“So for most models there will be minimal to no inventory recovery time,” said Roberts.
Looking at Ford’s production post-strike, Roberts added that production will take time to work back up to full speed, but if history is any guide, the markets can look to the General Motors strike in 2019.
“It appears that production levels in 2019 largely normalized in November after the strike ended in late October, suggesting that we could see production levels ramp up quickly assuming there are no issues with ratification or with impacts to the supply chain,” said Roberts.
So far the decline in new inventory levels hasn’t significantly impacted pricing, according to CarGurus. Roberts explained that could be a result of consumers purchasing lower-priced inventory, which would impact the weighted average.
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