Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACLS) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report
Shareholders might have noticed that Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACLS) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.5% to US$122 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$1.1b and statutory earnings per share of US$7.43. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Axcelis Technologies
Following last week's earnings report, Axcelis Technologies' seven analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.11b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 5.0% to US$7.14 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.59 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$160, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Axcelis Technologies' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Axcelis Technologies analyst has a price target of US$180 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$134. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Axcelis Technologies is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.6% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 26% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 16% per year. It's pretty clear that Axcelis Technologies' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$160, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Axcelis Technologies. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Axcelis Technologies going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
