Bakkavor Group plc (LON:BAKK) Stock's On A Decline: Are Poor Fundamentals The Cause?
With its stock down 11% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Bakkavor Group (LON:BAKK). To decide if this trend could continue, we decided to look at its weak fundamentals as they shape the long-term market trends. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Bakkavor Group's ROE today.
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
Check out our latest analysis for Bakkavor Group
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Bakkavor Group is:
2.0% = UK£12m ÷ UK£606m (Based on the trailing twelve months to July 2023).
The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every £1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn £0.02 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Bakkavor Group's Earnings Growth And 2.0% ROE
As you can see, Bakkavor Group's ROE looks pretty weak. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 6.9%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 15% seen by Bakkavor Group was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.
That being said, we compared Bakkavor Group's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 5.9% in the same 5-year period.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Bakkavor Group fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.
Is Bakkavor Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Bakkavor Group's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 67% (or a retention ratio of 33%). With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. You can see the 4 risks we have identified for Bakkavor Group by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.
Moreover, Bakkavor Group has been paying dividends for five years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 84% over the next three years. However, Bakkavor Group's future ROE is expected to rise to 8.1% despite the expected increase in the company's payout ratio. We infer that there could be other factors that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company's ROE.
Summary
Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Bakkavor Group. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
