BayCom Corp (NASDAQ:BCML) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
BayCom Corp (NASDAQ:BCML) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$101m and statutory earnings per share of US$2.06 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that BayCom is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for BayCom
After the latest results, the three analysts covering BayCom are now predicting revenues of US$108.0m in 2023. If met, this would reflect a modest 6.6% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 17% to US$2.48. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$111.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.46 in 2023. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.
The average price target was steady at US$24.00even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic BayCom analyst has a price target of US$25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$23.50. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the BayCom's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BayCom's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 6.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this to the 667 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while BayCom's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Sadly, they also downgraded their sales forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$24.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple BayCom analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for BayCom that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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