Bearish: Analysts Just Cut Their REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) Revenue and EPS estimates
The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business. Investors however, have been notably more optimistic about REGENXBIO recently, with the stock price up a worthy 21% to US$24.00 in the past week. It will be interesting to see if the downgrade has an impact on buying demand for the company's shares.
After this downgrade, REGENXBIO's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$140m in 2024. This would be a major 55% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 31% to US$4.11. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$160m and losses of US$2.93 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
View our latest analysis for REGENXBIO
Analysts lifted their price target 7.3% to US$38.55, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are not expected to have a longer-term impact on the stock's value.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting REGENXBIO's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 55% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 16% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that REGENXBIO is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. The rising price target is a puzzle, but still - with a serious cut to this year's outlook, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of REGENXBIO.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple REGENXBIO analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
