Is a Beat in Store for Unum Group (UNM) in Q3 Earnings?
Unum Group UNM is slated to report third-quarter 2023 earnings on Oct 31, after market close. The insurer delivered an earnings beat in the last two reported quarters of 2023.
Factors to Note
UNM’s premiums in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have benefited from solid persistency in-force business and strong sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.5 billion, indicating an increase of 4.8% from the year-ago reported quarter. Our estimate stands at $2.5 billion.
An improving rate environment likely is likely to have supported higher net investment income. Our estimate stands at $522.3 million, implying an upside of 2.1% from the year-ago reported quarter figure.
Improved premiums and increase in net investment income are likely to have aided top-line improvement. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $3.1 billion, suggesting an increase of 4.1% from the year-ago number.
Favorable benefits experience in group product lines, disciplined sales trends, strong persistency in group lines and growth of new product lines are likely to have favored the Unum U.S. segment. Higher operating expenses might have been a partial offset. Our estimate is $1.6 billion.
Favorable benefits experience, higher premium income, in-force block growth and higher sales are likely to have favored performance at Colonial Life. The upside is likely to have been partially offset by higher operating expenses. Our estimate is $436.7 billion.
Growth in the in-force block, resulting from the impact of rate increases in the group long-term disability product line and higher persistency are likely to have benefited Unum International in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate stands at $177.2 million.
Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher commissions, interest and debt expense, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and compensation expense. We expect total benefits and expenses to be $2.6 billion.
Continued share buybacks are likely to have provided a boost to the bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $1.92, indicating an increase of 27.2% from the year-ago reported figure.
Quantitative Model Prediction
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: It has an Earnings ESP of +0.66%. This is because the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.93 is pegged higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.92. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise
Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Unum Group Quote
Zacks Rank: Unum Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks to Consider
Some insurance stocks also with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
Enact Holdings ACT has an Earnings ESP of +2.33% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enact Holdings’ third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at 86 cents per share, indicating a decrease of 26.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
ACT’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed in the remaining one.
American International Group AIG has an Earnings ESP of +4.02% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIG’s third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $1.55 per share, indicating an increase of 134.9% from the year-ago reported figure.
AIG’s earnings missed estimates in each of the four trailing quarters.
Voya Financial VOYA has an Earnings ESP of +0.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Voya Financial’s third-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $2.09 per share, indicating a decrease of 9.1% from the year-ago reported figure.
VOYA’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed in one.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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American International Group, Inc. (AIG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Unum Group (UNM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Voya Financial, Inc. (VOYA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
