Is BP p.l.c.'s (LON:BP.) Latest Stock Performance Being Led By Its Strong Fundamentals?
Most readers would already know that BP's (LON:BP.) stock increased by 5.9% over the past three months. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term financial health, we decided to study the company’s fundamentals to see if they could be influencing the market. Particularly, we will be paying attention to BP's ROE today.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
See our latest analysis for BP
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for BP is:
19% = US$16b ÷ US$85b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every £1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of £0.19.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
A Side By Side comparison of BP's Earnings Growth And 19% ROE
To begin with, BP seems to have a respectable ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 16% the company's ROE looks quite decent. Consequently, this likely laid the ground for the decent growth of 20% seen over the past five years by BP.
Next, on comparing BP's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 22% over the last few years.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is BP. worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether BP. is currently mispriced by the market.
Is BP Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
In BP's case, its respectable earnings growth can probably be explained by its low three-year median payout ratio of 18% (or a retention ratio of 82%), which suggests that the company is investing most of its profits to grow its business.
Moreover, BP is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 35% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the higher expected payout ratio.
Summary
On the whole, we feel that BP's performance has been quite good. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. That being so, according to the latest industry analyst forecasts, the company's earnings are expected to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
