Bragg Gaming Group Inc. (TSE:BRAG) Shares Could Be 27% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Bragg Gaming Group is CA$8.20 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Current share price of CA$6.01 suggests Bragg Gaming Group is potentially 27% undervalued

• The €12.58 analyst price target for BRAG is 53% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Bragg Gaming Group Inc. (TSE:BRAG) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Bragg Gaming Group

Is Bragg Gaming Group Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€7.40m	€13.3m	€10.6m	€9.06m	€8.21m	€7.72m	€7.44m	€7.29m	€7.23m	€7.23m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ -14.17%	Est @ -9.36%	Est @ -6.00%	Est @ -3.64%	Est @ -1.99%	Est @ -0.83%	Est @ -0.03%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2%	€6.9	€11.5	€8.6	€6.9	€5.8	€5.1	€4.6	€4.2	€3.9	€3.6

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €61m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €7.2m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.2%– 1.9%) = €137m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €137m÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)¹⁰= €68m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €129m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$6.0, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Bragg Gaming Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.076. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Bragg Gaming Group

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Opportunity

• Expected to breakeven next year.

• Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.

• Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• No apparent threats visible for BRAG.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Bragg Gaming Group, we've put together three important aspects you should look at:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Bragg Gaming Group , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

2. Future Earnings: How does BRAG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.