Brian’s Spin: Market Recap.. Observations from the floor of the CME
“I like PBS. I love Big Bird. Actually like you, too (JimLehrer). But I’m not going to keep on spending money on things to borrow money from China to pay for it.” Mitt Romney as we can see, came out swinging and won the skirmish, but he is still in the spoiler roller with 33 days to go. Personally, I am not looking forward to the coming headlines from the elections here or EuroZone as the austerity measures continue to play out. The BOE and the ECB rate decisions were overlooked by traders and the Draghi presser had little effect on the Romney gains. Jobless claims checked in slightly better than expected as initial claims rose 4,000 to 367,000 last week vs exp 370 with the 4-week average flat. On the earnings front, Q3 EPS growth expectations down to NEGATIVE 2.1% (from +6.6% earlier this year); also, we've seen the highest % of negative pre-announcements since Mar '09. Nice breakouts in gold and silver as the metals extending their recent run. The crude market has awakened from a couple days of rest in the $92 area. Following yesterdays pasting, down over 4%, $12 off the 3 week high crude back and filled up to $92 area with continued unrest in the Middle East and a refinery fire on the west coast. When it comes to the black gold - bad news travels fast to the market place.
Morning observations: Schaeuble Says All Crisis Countries In Euro Zone But Greece Have Made Significant Progress, Spain, Italy Have Made 'Grand Achievements'. However, the following headline came out as the spoos were starting to fade off the 1457.50 high EU SAID TO DOUBT VIABILITY OF SPANISH 2013 DEFICIT CUT TARGET.
Wednesday started with 290k ESZ and 1.3k SPZ traded on Globex, trading range 1453.00 – 1444.00 / Wednesday’s RTH’s pit range was 1448.30 – 1436.00, settled at 1444.70 up 3.8 handles. Today’s RTH’s gapped 6 handles higher to 1450.50 – 1451.00 and traded 1449.00 before bouncing to new highs of 1451.50. EUBIE (08:51:10): if ya PULL the dailies / perfect Symmetrical Triangle since the 1467.50 9/14 HIGHS / RESOLUTION PINCH looks to be near. At 9:00 the Aug factory orders checked in -5.2% vs. exp -5.8%, revised previous number down .2 to 2.6%. Banks were firm again, DJT were holding their hard fought for gains, up 40ish points and crude was retracing some of yesterday’s huge losses. In the spoos, buy stops were elected above 1452 and buy programs spiked the spoos to 1455.50, then HOD 1457.50, 6 handles in 5 mins That marked a new 10 day high as chatter of Citi/BarCap buying 10K weekly SPX 1465 calls, expires tomorrow. Crude extended earlier gains up $1.25 as the spoos printed 1457.50 high at 9:11 and the treasuries were off modestly. The profit taking in the spoos, deterioration started after EU SAID TO DOUBT VIABILITY OF SPANISH 2013 DEFICIT CUT TARGET, which is nothing new, but profit taking took out the trailing stops and by 10:20 the spoos were back to retesting the opening range. Both the Nasdaq and spoos were up 10ish handles thru the lunch hour with AAPL trading down several dollars - the nazzy / tech continues to lag. The midday was stuck in sideways trade between 1453ish and 1456ish as some traders were leaning to the sell side, profit taking in front of tomorrow's jobs number. Following the FOMC minutes the bonds dropped and the spoos held firm. At 2:45 the closing imbalance showed buy $125mil. On the 3:00 cash close the SPZ traded 1455.70 and then settled at 1455.80 on the 3:15 futures close, up 11.1 handles on the day.
MrTS has three video’s today: Danny with new MrTopStep Contributor Jeffery Hirsch from Stock Traders Almanac
http://www.mrtopstep.com/10-4-2012-jeffrey-hirsch-and-danny-riley-video-1/
http://www.mrtopstep.com/10-4-2012-jeffrey-hirsch-and-danny-riley-video-2/
http://www.mrtopstep.com/%EF%BB%BF%EF%BB%BF10-4-2012-jeffrey-hirsch-and-danny-riley-video-3/
