Calculating The Fair Value Of Clearfield, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLFD)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Clearfield is US$29.96 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Clearfield's US$25.99 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate

• Our fair value estimate is 14% lower than Clearfield's analyst price target of US$35.00

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Clearfield, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLFD) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Clearfield

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$15.1m	US$17.5m	US$19.7m	US$21.5m	US$23.0m	US$24.3m	US$25.5m	US$26.5m	US$27.4m	US$28.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 22.65%	Est @ 16.52%	Est @ 12.23%	Est @ 9.23%	Est @ 7.13%	Est @ 5.65%	Est @ 4.62%	Est @ 3.90%	Est @ 3.40%	Est @ 3.04%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%	US$14.1	US$15.3	US$16.0	US$16.3	US$16.3	US$16.1	US$15.7	US$15.3	US$14.7	US$14.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$154m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$28m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.1%– 2.2%) = US$587m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$587m÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)¹⁰= US$295m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$449m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$26.0, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Clearfield as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.982. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Clearfield

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

Opportunity

• Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 2 years.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Clearfield, there are three further elements you should explore:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Clearfield has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

2. Future Earnings: How does CLFD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.