Calculating The Fair Value Of Trainline Plc (LON:TRN)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Trainline is UK£2.68 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• With UK£2.97 share price, Trainline appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

• Analyst price target for TRN is UK£3.67, which is 37% above our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Trainline Plc (LON:TRN) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Trainline

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£64.9m	UK£73.8m	UK£75.9m	UK£74.0m	UK£87.0m	UK£90.3m	UK£93.2m	UK£95.7m	UK£97.9m	UK£99.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x6	Analyst x6	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 3.84%	Est @ 3.14%	Est @ 2.66%	Est @ 2.32%	Est @ 2.08%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2%	UK£60.0	UK£63.1	UK£60.0	UK£54.1	UK£58.8	UK£56.4	UK£53.8	UK£51.1	UK£48.3	UK£45.6

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£551m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£100m× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (8.2%– 1.5%) = UK£1.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£1.5b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)¹⁰= UK£698m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£1.2b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£3.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Trainline as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.122. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Trainline

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.

Threat

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Trainline, we've compiled three fundamental elements you should look at:

1. Financial Health: Does TRN have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

2. Future Earnings: How does TRN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.