Cedar Woods Properties Limited (ASX:CWP) Has Fared Decently But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead For The Stock?
Cedar Woods Properties' (ASX:CWP) stock up by 4.9% over the past three months. However, the company's financials look a bit inconsistent and market outcomes are ultimately driven by long-term fundamentals, meaning that the stock could head in either direction. In this article, we decided to focus on Cedar Woods Properties' ROE.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.
View our latest analysis for Cedar Woods Properties
How Is ROE Calculated?
ROE can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cedar Woods Properties is:
7.7% = AU$32m ÷ AU$419m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.08.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
A Side By Side comparison of Cedar Woods Properties' Earnings Growth And 7.7% ROE
At first glance, Cedar Woods Properties' ROE doesn't look very promising. Although a closer study shows that the company's ROE is higher than the industry average of 5.1% which we definitely can't overlook. But seeing Cedar Woods Properties' five year net income decline of 13% over the past five years, we might rethink that. Bear in mind, the company does have a slightly low ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is lower. Hence, this goes some way in explaining the shrinking earnings.
That being said, we compared Cedar Woods Properties' performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 13% in the same 5-year period.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Cedar Woods Properties is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Cedar Woods Properties Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Cedar Woods Properties has a high three-year median payout ratio of 70% (that is, it is retaining 30% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. You can see the 2 risks we have identified for Cedar Woods Properties by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.
Moreover, Cedar Woods Properties has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 63% of its profits over the next three years. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Cedar Woods Properties' future ROE will be 8.7% which is again, similar to the current ROE.
Conclusion
Overall, we have mixed feelings about Cedar Woods Properties. Primarily, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which explains the lack of growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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