Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Down 5.4% Since Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE. Shares have lost about 5.4% in that time frame, underperforming the market.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Cheesecake Factory Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Cuts ’17 View
Cheesecake Factory reported lower-than-expected first-quarter 2017 results with both earnings and revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Further, the company lowered its fiscal 2017 outlook due to prevailing challenging restaurant environment.
Earnings and Revenue Discussion
Adjusted earnings of $0.72 per share fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.73 by 1.4%. Meanwhile, the figure increased 5.9% from the prior-year quarter earnings of $0.68 on higher revenues and a lower share count.
Sales of $563.4 million also came below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $565.4 million by 0.4%, but rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.
Inside the Headlines
Comps at Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased a mere 0.3%, lower than comps growth of 1.7% a year ago and 1.1% in the preceding quarter. Menu price increase of 2.4% and positive mix of 0.2% drove comps, fairly offset by a 2.3% decline in traffic.
Cost of sales ratio decreased 70 basis points (bps) year over year to 22.9%. This was primarily attributable to lower groceries, dairy and meat costs. Meanwhile, labor expense ratio was 34.4%, 90 bps higher year over year owing to elevated wage rates as well as some deleverage.
General and administrative expenses accounted for 6.4% of revenues in the first quarter, in line with the prior-year quarter level. Notably, pre-opening expenses were roughly $1 million, down from $2.3 million in the year-ago quarter.
Second-Quarter 2017 Outlook
For the second quarter, adjusted earnings per share are guided in the range of $0.85 to $0.88. Meanwhile, comps are anticipated to be in the band of 1% to 2% at Cheesecake Factory restaurants. Notably, this comps sales range guidance assumes a roughly 50 bps positive impact because of the shift of Easter and the allied spring break vacations into the second quarter from the first quarter in 2016.
Fiscal 2017 Guidance Cut
The company slashed its fiscal 2017 adjusted earnings per share projection mainly to reflect the impact of modest tempering of its top line expectations for the remaining of 2017, as the expected improvement in the consumer environment has not so far played itself out.
It now expects earnings in the range of $2.93 to $3.02 compared with $2.95 to $3.07, guided previously.
Moreover, the company now expects comps growth in the range of 0.5% to 1.5%, down from 1–2% band, anticipated earlier.
Meanwhile, capital expenditures for the year are still projected in the range of $125–$140 million, including eight planned domestic openings and a few potential openings for early 2018.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Following the release, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There have been two revisions higher for the current quarter compared to one lower.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Price and Consensus
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Price and Consensus | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Quote
VGM Scores
At this time, the stock has a strong Growth Score of 'A', though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with a 'F'. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'B' on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'A'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Based on our scores, the stock is primarily suitable for growth investors while also being suitable for those looking for value.
Outlook
While estimates have been moving upward, the magnitude of the revision is net zero. The stock has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We are expecting a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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