Columbia Sportswear Company Just Missed EPS By 9.4%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
As you might know, Columbia Sportswear Company (NASDAQ:COLM) recently reported its yearly numbers. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$3.5b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.4% to hit US$4.09 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Columbia Sportswear
Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Columbia Sportswear provided consensus estimates of US$3.41b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 2.2% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 10% to US$3.72 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.60 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$73.23, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Columbia Sportswear's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Columbia Sportswear, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$90.00 and the most bearish at US$59.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Columbia Sportswear shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.2% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.1% per year. It's pretty clear that Columbia Sportswear's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Columbia Sportswear going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
