Columbus McKinnon (NASDAQ:CMCO) shareholders have earned a 18% CAGR over the last three years
Buying a low-cost index fund will get you the average market return. But in any diversified portfolio of stocks, you'll see some that fall short of the average. For example, the Columbus McKinnon Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCO) share price return of 63% over three years lags the market return in the same period. Disappointingly, the share price is down 19% in the last year.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
View our latest analysis for Columbus McKinnon
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Over the last three years, Columbus McKinnon failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 18% (annualized).
So we doubt that the market is looking to EPS for its main judge of the company's value. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.
The modest 0.8% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. It may well be that Columbus McKinnon revenue growth rate of 8.4% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth, and maybe shareholder's faith in better days ahead will be rewarded.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Columbus McKinnon has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Columbus McKinnon will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Columbus McKinnon the TSR over the last 3 years was 66%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Columbus McKinnon shareholders are down 19% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 12%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 0.2% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Columbus McKinnon better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Columbus McKinnon that you should be aware of before investing here.
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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