Computacenter plc's (LON:CCC) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 49% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Computacenter fair value estimate is UK£40.08

• Computacenter is estimated to be 33% undervalued based on current share price of UK£26.88

• The UK£29.89 analyst price target for CCC is 25% less than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Computacenter plc (LON:CCC) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Computacenter

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£220.6m	UK£223.7m	UK£271.9m	UK£293.6m	UK£311.3m	UK£325.9m	UK£338.1m	UK£348.5m	UK£357.6m	UK£365.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x1	Est @ 7.98%	Est @ 6.04%	Est @ 4.69%	Est @ 3.74%	Est @ 3.07%	Est @ 2.61%	Est @ 2.28%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1%	UK£204	UK£191	UK£215	UK£215	UK£211	UK£204	UK£196	UK£186	UK£177	UK£167

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£2.0b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£366m× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (8.1%– 1.5%) = UK£5.6b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£5.6b÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)¹⁰= UK£2.6b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£4.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£26.9, the company appears quite undervalued at a 33% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Computacenter as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.120. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Computacenter

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the IT industry.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the IT market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Computacenter, there are three relevant aspects you should further research:

1. Risks: Be aware that Computacenter is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

2. Future Earnings: How does CCC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.