Cotton questions: West Texas producers optimistic as weather brings mixed bag
Battling everything from softball-sized hail and 90 mph straight-line winds to drought and unprecedented flooding – even tornadoes in some cases – farmers on the High Plains are in one of the most unpredictable planting seasons in history.
Because of the consistent Jekyll and Hyde weather in the early half of the year, John Robinson, a Texas AgriLife Extension cotton economist in Bryan-College Station, said the 2023 cotton season will be the most uncertain he has ever analyzed.
While many regional farmers are optimistic for this year’s harvest, others are already seeing some damage to their crops as severe storms and widespread rains lingered over the region for much of May.
Shawn Wade, Director of Policy Analysis and Researchers for Plains Cotton Growers, sharing some opinions with Robinson, said he's hopeful for a more prosperous harvest than last year, but also recognizes there are far fewer plants going into the season than last year.
Cotton expectations for 2023
In spring 2022, Texas planted its highest acreage of cotton since 1954. But much of that acreage failed to produce due to drought. And in December, the National Cotton Council mailed a survey asking producers for the number of acres they planned for cotton this coming season. Based on the responses, Texas' planted acreage is forecast to decline by more than 21 percent, one of the largest decreases expected among the 17 cotton-producing states. Instead, they would focus on corn, sorghum and wheat.
As the nation's leading producer of cotton, the difference — from 7.85 million planted acres in 2022 to approximately 6.2 million this year — is greater than the total acreage planted of any other state. In fact, the acreage shortage is more than the acreage intended for Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Kansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia combined.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Association for Agriculture Statistics shows there are just over 6.1 million cotton acres planted in Texas this year, and Wade said between 3 million and 3.5 million are on the High Plains.
“The expectation, especially in the state of Texas, was that there would be fewer cotton acres planted (to begin with),” Wade said when talking about the success of this year’s harvest. “We’ve certainly seen some hail losses; we’ve seen some damaged crops that have been released from an insurance standpoint. But I am optimistic.”
Last year, many farmers had already decided to call off their crops by the first weekend of July, and Wade notes that the High Plains is in a much better position this year than last.
Heading into the 27th agricultural week, the USDA NASS dashboard shows only about 5% of the current crop is in excellent condition. Roughly, 34% of the existing crop is in fair condition, while approximately 29% is in good condition. Approximately 21% is in poor condition, and 11%, very poor.
Wade told the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal last year that these numbers can change with sufficient rain. Already this year, much of the region has seen close to or above-average rainfall thanks to timely rains in the late spring and early summer.
“We get the right weather for this area, and we can make anywhere from an average to a really good crop this year,” Wade said.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: West Texas cotton producers optimistic as weather brings mixed bag
