Coupang, Inc.'s (NYSE:CPNG) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 44% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Coupang is US$26.02 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Current share price of US$18.09 suggests Coupang is potentially 30% undervalued

• Our fair value estimate is 21% higher than Coupang's analyst price target of US$21.47

Does the March share price for Coupang, Inc. (NYSE:CPNG) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Coupang

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$1.21b	US$1.60b	US$2.13b	US$2.29b	US$2.42b	US$2.54b	US$2.64b	US$2.73b	US$2.82b	US$2.90b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x6	Analyst x1	Est @ 7.35%	Est @ 5.83%	Est @ 4.77%	Est @ 4.03%	Est @ 3.50%	Est @ 3.14%	Est @ 2.89%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%	US$1.1k	US$1.4k	US$1.7k	US$1.7k	US$1.7k	US$1.7k	US$1.6k	US$1.6k	US$1.5k	US$1.5k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$16b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.9b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.1%– 2.3%) = US$62b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$62b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)¹⁰= US$31b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$47b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$18.1, the company appears quite good value at a 30% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Coupang as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.045. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Coupang

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• No major weaknesses identified for CPNG.

Opportunity

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.

• Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Coupang, there are three essential items you should assess:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Coupang that you should be aware of.

2. Future Earnings: How does CPNG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.