Push to the side all the artificial intelligence banter at fancy cocktail parties and debates about interest rate cuts at this year's World Economic Forum, and you are left with the main not-so-fun topic.
Which is the risk to a stock market trading near records and an economy that's been humming along from a second Donald Trump presidency.
"It would be insane if he won," one top economist told Yahoo Finance.
Other leaders have begun to prepare for such a scenario, by zooming into fourth quarter budgets and overall plans with an eye toward more caution.
Another leader Yahoo Finance chatted up during breakfast went so far as to say they are reminding employees to chill on the political back and forth on their internal messaging platform.
The talk of Trump Round 2 only intensified in Davos, Switzerland, as the week went along.
Trump finished with 51% of the vote in the Iowa caucus earlier this week. Second place went to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who won just over 21% of the vote.
It was a commanding win that stunned many in the business community.
"I am surprised," Carlyle Group (CG) co-founder David Rubenstein said on Yahoo Finance Live about Trump's support in the country.
Here is what the Yahoo Finance team has learned from those plugged into all things Wall Street and politics about the possible impact on investors from a second Trump presidency.
David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group
"Tell me who the president is going to be and who the Congress is going to be, and I'll tell you what the impact [to markets] will be. If the Republicans win the White House and both houses of Congress, clearly, there's going to be a more pro-business approach. If the Democrats win both houses and the presidency, it will probably not be as pro-business, I guess.
But the statistics show that the economy actually does the best when you have divided government. Now, that wouldn't be logical because the government is fighting with each other. But actually if you go back over the last 50 years or so, the S&P 500 or the equivalent go up more when you have divided government. It's not easy to explain why that is, but maybe it's a checks-and-balance kind of thing. If the president of the United States is Donald Trump, obviously a lot of CEOs will be happy. They won't say so publicly, but he will probably reduce taxes and reduce regulation. If Joe Biden is elected president, again, I think some business people would say we're going to have more regulation, and it will be very difficult to get antitrust approval for things.
But in the end, you adapt to things. What business people are good at is adapting. Just tell them what the rules are, and they'll try to figure out how to deal with it. So it's often difficult to predict where the markets are going to go, though, because interest rates are going to drive it more than anything else — and that's pretty much apolitical."
Anthony Scaramucci, Skybridge founder
"I think that the consensus is that a second Trump presidency would be [good for markets], but I don't think it would be. And I want to explain why, as it's very important. We have the best legal system in the world. It's very, very predictable. And it's grounded in 900 years of common law. Mr. Trump has told us that he wants to be a dictator for a day. Mr. Trump has told us that he's going to use the Department of Justice to persecute his adversaries. Mr. Trump has told us that his goal will be to expand the executive power of the United States. And so anybody that's really studied our system knows that the flat, decentralized nature of our system has enabled each of our families to grow in America. And so when you have people that think like [Trump], and they think in a more authoritative way, it could be very, very dangerous."
Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group founder
"The US dollar is the global reserve currency. The US is utterly dominant in artificial intelligence. It is a massive food producer and exporter, and a massive energy producer and exporter. All of these are signs of economic strength. But at the same time, the political environment in the US is more dysfunctional by a long margin than any of the other advanced industrial democracies to the extent this is a huge risk. I mean, yes — red versus blue raises concerns about creditworthiness long term."
Read the latest from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland:
How many times the Fed will cut interest rates is a hot topic in Davos
IMF managing director on AI's impact: New social safety nets may be needed
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on AI's impact on jobs: It's great for white-collar workers, coders
Generative AI is miracle technology for profit-hungry CEOs: PwC survey
'Sheer panic' from European leaders on potential second Trump term: Ian Bremmer
PepsiCo CEO on leadership, ultra-processed foods, and weight-loss drugs
Nasdaq CEO: Financial crime is now a multitrillion-dollar epidemic
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on Twitter/X @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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