Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)?
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) has had a rough month with its share price down 1.7%. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. In this article, we decided to focus on Johnson & Johnson's ROE.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.
See our latest analysis for Johnson & Johnson
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Johnson & Johnson is:
19% = US$13b ÷ US$69b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.19 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
A Side By Side comparison of Johnson & Johnson's Earnings Growth And 19% ROE
To start with, Johnson & Johnson's ROE looks acceptable. Even when compared to the industry average of 20% the company's ROE looks quite decent. Given the circumstances, we can't help but wonder why Johnson & Johnson saw little to no growth in the past five years. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that's limiting the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.
As a next step, we compared Johnson & Johnson's net income growth with the industry and discovered that the company's growth is slightly less than the industry average growth of 1.7% in the same period.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for JNJ? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
Is Johnson & Johnson Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
With a high three-year median payout ratio of 70% (implying that the company keeps only 30% of its income) of its business to reinvest into its business), most of Johnson & Johnson's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the absence of growth in earnings.
In addition, Johnson & Johnson has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 47% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 31% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.
Conclusion
In total, it does look like Johnson & Johnson has some positive aspects to its business. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which means that investors aren't reaping the benefits of the high rate of return. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
