Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY)?
It is hard to get excited after looking at Magnolia Oil & Gas' (NYSE:MGY) recent performance, when its stock has declined 15% over the past month. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Magnolia Oil & Gas' ROE today.
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
See our latest analysis for Magnolia Oil & Gas
How Is ROE Calculated?
ROE can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Magnolia Oil & Gas is:
67% = US$988m ÷ US$1.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2022).
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.67.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Magnolia Oil & Gas' Earnings Growth And 67% ROE
To begin with, Magnolia Oil & Gas has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 32% the company's ROE is quite impressive. So, the substantial 20% net income growth seen by Magnolia Oil & Gas over the past five years isn't overly surprising.
Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Magnolia Oil & Gas' growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 6.8% in the same period, which is great to see.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Magnolia Oil & Gas is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Magnolia Oil & Gas' ' three-year median payout ratio is on the lower side at 8.6% implying that it is retaining a higher percentage (91%) of its profits. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business as evidenced by the growth seen by the company.
While Magnolia Oil & Gas has seen growth in its earnings, it only recently started to pay a dividend. It is most likely that the company decided to impress new and existing shareholders with a dividend. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 17% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 31% over the same period.
Summary
Overall, we are quite pleased with Magnolia Oil & Gas' performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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