Despite the downward trend in earnings at Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) the stock climbs 4.3%, bringing three-year gains to 59%
By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Sandfire Resources Limited (ASX:SFR) share price is up 34% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 23% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 28% , including dividends .
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Sandfire Resources
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over the last three years, Sandfire Resources failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 45% (annualized).
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.
It may well be that Sandfire Resources revenue growth rate of 33% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Sandfire Resources is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Sandfire Resources will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Sandfire Resources' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Sandfire Resources' TSR of 59% for the 3 years exceeded its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Sandfire Resources has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 28% in the last twelve months. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 3% per year over five years. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Sandfire Resources better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Sandfire Resources has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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