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Did Changing Sentiment Drive Vector Group's (NYSE:VGR) Share Price Down By 45%?

Simply Wall St

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Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Investors in Vector Group Ltd. (NYSE:VGR) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 45%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 10%. To make matters worse, the returns over three years have also been really disappointing (the share price is 44% lower than three years ago). Even worse, it's down 9.9% in about a month, which isn't fun at all.

View our latest analysis for Vector Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Unhappily, Vector Group had to report a 35% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 45% share price fall. This suggests the EPS fall has made some shareholders are more nervous about the business.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:VGR Past and Future Earnings, April 4th 2019

Dive deeper into Vector Group's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Vector Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Vector Group's TSR for the last year was -37%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Vector Group shareholders are down 37% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 10%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.3% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

We will like Vector Group better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.