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Did Redde's (LON:REDD) Share Price Deserve to Gain 39%?

Simply Wall St

When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, long term Redde plc (LON:REDD) shareholders have enjoyed a 39% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 3.3% (not including dividends).

Check out our latest analysis for Redde

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, Redde managed to grow its earnings per share at 11% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 6.8% over the same period. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 9.54 also suggests market apprehension.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

AIM:REDD Past and Future Earnings, November 23rd 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Redde's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Redde the TSR over the last 5 years was 96%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Redde had a tough year, with a total loss of 31% (including dividends) , against a market gain of about 11%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 14%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.