Does Chesnara plc's (LON:CSN) Weak Fundamentals Mean A Downturn In Its Stock Should Be Expected?
Most readers would already know that Chesnara's (LON:CSN) stock increased by 3.3% over the past month. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak financials, as long-term fundamentals ultimately dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Chesnara's ROE today.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.
Check out our latest analysis for Chesnara
How Is ROE Calculated?
ROE can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Chesnara is:
5.2% = UK£19m ÷ UK£360m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each £1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made £0.05 in profit.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
Chesnara's Earnings Growth And 5.2% ROE
When you first look at it, Chesnara's ROE doesn't look that attractive. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 13%. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 54% seen by Chesnara was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.
Furthermore, even when compared to the industry, which has been shrinking its earnings at a rate of 22% over the last few years, we found that Chesnara's performance is pretty disappointing, as it suggests that the company has been shrunk its earnings at a rate faster than the industry.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Chesnara's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
Is Chesnara Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
With a high three-year median payout ratio of 73% (implying that 27% of the profits are retained), most of Chesnara's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. To know the 2 risks we have identified for Chesnara visit our risks dashboard for free.
Moreover, Chesnara has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 77%.
Summary
In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning Chesnara. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
