What Does Pegasystems Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PEGA) Share Price Indicate?
Pegasystems Inc. (NASDAQ:PEGA), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. The company is inching closer to its yearly highs following the recent share price climb. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s examine Pegasystems’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.
Check out our latest analysis for Pegasystems
What Is Pegasystems Worth?
Pegasystems appears to be expensive according to our price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average. In this instance, we’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. We find that Pegasystems’s ratio of 78.41x is above its peer average of 45.01x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Software industry. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Pegasystems’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What does the future of Pegasystems look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for Pegasystems, at least in the near future.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? If you believe PEGA is currently trading above its peers, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to reduce your total portfolio risk. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on PEGA for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Its price has risen beyond its industry peers, on top of a negative future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?
So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Pegasystems you should know about.
If you are no longer interested in Pegasystems, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
