Does This Valuation Of AIXTRON SE (ETR:AIXA) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, AIXTRON fair value estimate is €31.96

• Current share price of €38.66 suggests AIXTRON is potentially 21% overvalued

• Our fair value estimate is 20% lower than AIXTRON's analyst price target of €40.19

Does the January share price for AIXTRON SE (ETR:AIXA) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for AIXTRON

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€127.7m	€143.0m	€189.6m	€198.2m	€217.4m	€230.6m	€240.7m	€248.5m	€254.4m	€259.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x6	Analyst x5	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 6.08%	Est @ 4.39%	Est @ 3.21%	Est @ 2.39%	Est @ 1.81%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8%	€120	€125	€156	€153	€157	€156	€152	€147	€141	€135

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €1.4b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €259m× (1 + 0.5%) ÷ (6.8%– 0.5%) = €4.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €4.1b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)¹⁰= €2.1b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €3.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €38.7, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

XTRA:AIXA Discounted Cash Flow January 1st 2024

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at AIXTRON as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.259. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for AIXTRON

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.

• Currently debt free.

Weakness

• Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Semiconductor industry.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Semiconductor market.

• Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the German market.

Threat

• Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For AIXTRON, there are three essential aspects you should further research:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for AIXTRON we've flagged before making an investment in the company.

2. Future Earnings: How does AIXA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the XTRA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.