Does This Valuation Of The Sage Group plc (LON:SGE) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Sage Group fair value estimate is UK£5.71

• Sage Group is estimated to be 31% overvalued based on current share price of UK£7.49

• The UK£8.64 analyst price target for SGE is 51% more than our estimate of fair value

Does the March share price for The Sage Group plc (LON:SGE) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Sage Group

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£365.6m	UK£417.5m	UK£461.1m	UK£463.0m	UK£465.8m	UK£469.4m	UK£473.6m	UK£478.2m	UK£483.1m	UK£488.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x10	Analyst x10	Analyst x9	Analyst x1	Est @ 0.61%	Est @ 0.77%	Est @ 0.89%	Est @ 0.97%	Est @ 1.02%	Est @ 1.06%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6%	UK£337	UK£354	UK£360	UK£333	UK£308	UK£286	UK£266	UK£247	UK£230	UK£214

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£2.9b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£488m× (1 + 1.2%) ÷ (8.6%– 1.2%) = UK£6.6b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£6.6b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)¹⁰= UK£2.9b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£5.8b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£7.5, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sage Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.071. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Sage Group

Strength

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Software market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.

• Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.

Threat

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Sage Group, we've put together three further elements you should further research:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Sage Group , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for SGE's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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