Earnings Beat: Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) just released its annual report and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 4.9% to hit US$3.5b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$49.30, some 8.8% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Alpha Metallurgical Resources after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Alpha Metallurgical Resources
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the dual analysts covering Alpha Metallurgical Resources, is for revenues of US$3.21b in 2024. This implies a perceptible 7.5% reduction in Alpha Metallurgical Resources' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 38% to US$34.51 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$31.60 in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.
With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 82% to US$399per share.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.5% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 18% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Alpha Metallurgical Resources is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Alpha Metallurgical Resources following these results. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Alpha Metallurgical Resources (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
