Earnings Beat: Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Forecasts
As you might know, Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR) just kicked off its latest annual results with some very strong numbers. The results overall were pretty good, with revenues of US$25m exceeding expectations and statutory losses coming in at justUS$0.83 per share, some 20% below what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Capricor Therapeutics
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering Capricor Therapeutics is for revenues of US$21.4m in 2024. This implies a not inconsiderable 15% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.96 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$15.2m and losses of US$1.20 per share in 2024. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
The consensus price target rose 12% to US$21.00, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Capricor Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$40.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 15% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 71% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Capricor Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Capricor Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Capricor Therapeutics that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
