Earnings Beat: Dillard's, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
Last week, you might have seen that Dillard's, Inc. (NYSE:DDS) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to US$415 in the past week. Dillard's reported US$6.9b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$44.73 beat expectations, being 7.0% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Dillard's
Taking into account the latest results, the four analysts covering Dillard's provided consensus estimates of US$6.57b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a noticeable 4.5% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 32% to US$30.92 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$28.19 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target rose 24% to US$311, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Dillard's analyst has a price target of US$450 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$190. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Dillard's is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Dillard's' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Dillard's' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Dillard's going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Dillard's has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
