Earnings Update: Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:BCYC) Just Reported Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
It's been a good week for Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:BCYC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 8.6% to US$23.98. Revenues of US$27m came in 9.7% below estimates, but statutory losses were slightly better than expected, at US$5.08 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Bicycle Therapeutics
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Bicycle Therapeutics' 13 analysts is for revenues of US$27.9m in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$5.32 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$31.5m and losses of US$5.68 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$44.89, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Bicycle Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$60.00 and the most bearish at US$30.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Bicycle Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Bicycle Therapeutics.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at US$44.89, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bicycle Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Bicycle Therapeutics , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
