Earnings Update: Genesis Energy Limited (NZSE:GNE) Just Reported Its Half-Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
As you might know, Genesis Energy Limited (NZSE:GNE) recently reported its half-year numbers. Genesis Energy reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of NZ$1.4b and statutory earnings per share of NZ$0.19, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Genesis Energy after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Genesis Energy
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Genesis Energy's five analysts is for revenues of NZ$2.65b in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 4.2% to NZ$0.079 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of NZ$2.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.062 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the massive increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of NZ$2.69, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Genesis Energy at NZ$2.90 per share, while the most bearish prices it at NZ$2.30. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Genesis Energy's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.8% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.01% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Genesis Energy is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Genesis Energy following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Genesis Energy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Genesis Energy (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
