Earnings Update: HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HOT) Just Reported Its Half-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
It's been a pretty great week for HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HOT) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to €90.35 in the week since its latest interim results. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at €6.8b, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on HOCHTIEF after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for HOCHTIEF
Following last week's earnings report, HOCHTIEF's six analysts are forecasting 2023 revenues to be €27.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be €6.75, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €27.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.66 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €82.13. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on HOCHTIEF, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €94.00 and the most bearish at €65.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the HOCHTIEF's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting HOCHTIEF's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 2.4% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 3.0% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, HOCHTIEF is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that HOCHTIEF's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for HOCHTIEF going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for HOCHTIEF that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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