Earnings Update: Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
Investors in Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) had a good week, as its shares rose 8.3% to close at US$41.84 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues beat expectations, with US$79m in revenue being 13% above estimates. The company still lost US$2.52 per share, tracking roughly in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Kymera Therapeutics
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 13 analysts covering Kymera Therapeutics is for revenues of US$41.1m in 2024. This implies a disturbing 48% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 37% to US$3.29 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$52.1m and US$3.25 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.
The consensus price target rose 13% to US$48.69, seeming to imply that weaker revenue sentiment is not expected to have a major impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Kymera Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$112 and the most bearish at US$26.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Kymera Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 48% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 31% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that Kymera Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kymera Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Kymera Therapeutics that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
