Earnings Miss: Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Missed EPS By 22% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
It's been a pretty great week for Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMLX) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$17.65 in the week since its latest annual results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.70, some 22% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$381m. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Amylyx Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Amylyx Pharmaceuticals
After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Amylyx Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$488.1m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a substantial 28% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 48% to US$0.38 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$499.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.81 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$35.57, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Amylyx Pharmaceuticals' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Amylyx Pharmaceuticals at US$42.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$27.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Amylyx Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 28% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 135% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Amylyx Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Amylyx Pharmaceuticals. They also downgraded Amylyx Pharmaceuticals' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$35.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Amylyx Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Amylyx Pharmaceuticals that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
