Earnings Miss: BioNTech SE Missed EPS By 14% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) just released its latest annual report and things are not looking great. BioNTech missed earnings this time around, with €3.8b revenue coming in 8.8% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €3.83 also fell short of expectations by 14%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for BioNTech
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 17 analysts covering BioNTech is for revenues of €2.91b in 2024. This implies a concerning 24% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -€1.63 per share in 2024. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.20 in 2024. There looks to have been a significant drop in sentiment regarding BioNTech's prospects after these latest results, with a small dip in revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.
The consensus price target fell 6.0% to US$118, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BioNTech at US$187 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$89.56. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the BioNTech's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 24% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 45% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that BioNTech's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting BioNTech to become unprofitable next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of BioNTech's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for BioNTech going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with BioNTech (including 1 which is concerning) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
