Earnings Miss: Brenntag SE Missed EPS By 6.0% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Brenntag SE (ETR:BNR), which a week ago released some disappointing yearly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Brenntag missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of €17b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €4.73, falling short by 2.6% and 6.0% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Brenntag
Following the latest results, Brenntag's 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €17.7b in 2024. This would be an okay 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.8% to €5.38. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €17.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.35 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €86.88, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Brenntag at €105 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €70.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Brenntag's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Brenntag is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Brenntag going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also view our analysis of Brenntag's balance sheet, and whether we think Brenntag is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
