Earnings Update: Ocuphire Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUP) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
Ocuphire Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUP) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 20% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.46. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Ocuphire Pharma
After the latest results, the consensus from Ocuphire Pharma's four analysts is for revenues of US$15.1m in 2024, which would reflect a painful 21% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 84% to US$0.74 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$28.1m and US$0.0067 per share in losses. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$20.50, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Ocuphire Pharma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.00 and the most bearish at US$16.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 21% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 86% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.9% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Ocuphire Pharma is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$20.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ocuphire Pharma. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ocuphire Pharma going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Ocuphire Pharma that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
