EMERGING MARKETS-Stronger dollar weighs on Latam FX, Mexican peso falls as rate cut expectations rise

In this article:

* Mexico consumer prices fall in early February * JPMorgan to add Venezuela bonds to EM bond indexes * Chile's peso at lowest since October 2022 * Brazil's GPA down after Q4 results * FX falls 0.3%, stocks down 0.5% (Updated at 3:15pm ET/2015 GMT) By Shashwat Chauhan and Lisa Pauline Mattackal Feb 22 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies eased on Thursday against a stronger dollar, with Mexico's peso slipping after a surprise drop in consumer inflation bolstered bets on local interest rate cuts. Mexico's currency dropped as much as 0.6% to its lowest in over one week after consumer prices fell in the first half of February. It was last down 0.4% at 17.1073 to the dollar. Slowing inflation data lifted expectations that the central bank was on track to cut interest rates soon, which was reinforced by minutes from its last meeting. "The drop back in Mexico's headline inflation rate in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March's Board meeting," wrote Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. "That said, the rise in core services inflation reinforces our view that the easing cycle, when it begins, will be slow going." MSCI's gauge for Latin American currencies fell 0.4%, set for its worst session in two weeks against the U.S. dollar, which rebounded from three-week lows touched earlier on Thursday as investors looked ahead for fresh clues on when the U.S. Federal Reserve would start easing monetary policy. Latin American currencies have come under pressure in recent weeks as investors continue to push back expectations for a reduction in U.S. borrowing costs, even as many regional central banks prepare to cut rates. Chile's peso dropped over 1% to its lowest since October 2022. Colombia's peso fell 0.3% against the dollar, Brazil's real fell 0.1%, and Peru's sol rose 0.4%. Brazil's main stock index rose 0.2% early on, tracking an upbeat start on Wall Street and lifted by a 1.2% rise in shares of miner Vale. Brazilian food retailer GPA fell 5.1% despite reporting a narrower fourth quarter loss. A broader gauge of Latin American stocks, on the other hand, dipped 0.5%, underperforming a 0.9% jump in broader EM stocks as global markets cheered U.S. chipmaker Nvidia's stellar results. Elsewhere, JPMorgan said Venezuela's sovereign bonds and those of state oil company PDVSA will return to its highly influential emerging market bond indexes over a three-month period starting from the end of April. Argentina's Merval index jumped 3.5% in its best day in over a month. Elsewhere in emerging markets, the Turkish lira was last at 30.9855 after the country's central bank its key interest rate unchanged at 45%, as expected after last month's hike. HIGHLIGHTS ** Brazil's federal tax revenue up 6.67% in strongest January ever ** Nigeria's economy grows steadily as oil output rises Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 2015 GMT: Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1029.23 0.84 MSCI LatAm 2564.97 -0.45 Brazil Bovespa 130226.09 0.15 Mexico IPC 57235.56 0.38 Chile IPSA 6237.63 -0.22 Argentina MerVal 1076030.02 3.513 Colombia COLCAP 1278.44 0.76 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.9564 -0.09 Mexico peso 17.1071 -0.40 Chile peso 978.5 -1.08 Colombia peso 3927.5 -0.25 Peru sol 3.7755 0.36 Argentina peso 838.3000 -0.05 (interbank) Argentina peso 1065 4.69 (parallel) (Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Angus MacSwan and Jonathan Oatis)

Advertisement