Estimating The Fair Value Of ASOS Plc (LON:ASC)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for ASOS is UK£5.15 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• With UK£4.38 share price, ASOS appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

• Analyst price target for ASC is UK£5.60, which is 8.8% above our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of ASOS Plc (LON:ASC) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for ASOS

The Model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£46.2m	UK£47.3m	UK£77.7m	UK£4.00m	UK£85.0m	UK£89.8m	UK£93.6m	UK£96.9m	UK£99.6m	UK£102.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x10	Analyst x10	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 5.59%	Est @ 4.33%	Est @ 3.44%	Est @ 2.82%	Est @ 2.39%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 13%	UK£40.8	UK£36.9	UK£53.5	UK£2.4	UK£45.7	UK£42.7	UK£39.3	UK£35.9	UK£32.6	UK£29.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£359m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£102m× (1 + 1.4%) ÷ (13%– 1.4%) = UK£875m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£875m÷ ( 1 + 13%)¹⁰= UK£253m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£613m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£4.4, the company appears about fair value at a 15% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at ASOS as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for ASOS

Strength

• Debt is well covered by earnings.

Weakness

• Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Opportunity

• Forecast to reduce losses next year.

• Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.

• Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For ASOS, there are three relevant aspects you should explore:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for ASOS you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.

2. Future Earnings: How does ASC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.