Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of H World Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, H World Group fair value estimate is US$46.70

• With US$47.15 share price, H World Group appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

• The CN¥58.32 analyst price target for HTHT is 25% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of H World Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for H World Group

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥4.49b	CN¥4.00b	CN¥5.91b	CN¥7.41b	CN¥8.78b	CN¥9.96b	CN¥11.0b	CN¥11.8b	CN¥12.5b	CN¥13.1b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Est @ 25.40%	Est @ 18.40%	Est @ 13.50%	Est @ 10.07%	Est @ 7.67%	Est @ 5.99%	Est @ 4.82%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 11%	CN¥4.0k	CN¥3.3k	CN¥4.3k	CN¥4.9k	CN¥5.2k	CN¥5.4k	CN¥5.3k	CN¥5.2k	CN¥5.0k	CN¥4.7k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥47b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥13b× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (11%– 2.1%) = CN¥153b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥153b÷ ( 1 + 11%)¹⁰= CN¥55b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥102b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$47.2, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at H World Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.223. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for H World Group

Strength

• No major strengths identified for HTHT.

Weakness

• Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Expected to breakeven next year.

• Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.

Threat

• Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For H World Group, we've put together three fundamental elements you should explore:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - H World Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

2. Future Earnings: How does HTHT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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