Euro Debt Crisis Policy Still in Focus as FinMin Summit Continues
Currency markets remain fixated on Eurozone debt crisis management as a summit of the region’s finance ministers continues while Germany’s Merkel visits Greece.
Talking Points
Eurozone FinMin Summit Still Key as Draghi Speaks, Merkel in Greece
Greek Bill Auction May Reveal Markets’ Take on Euro Rescue Efforts
UK Industrial Output, Trade Data Unlikely to be Formative for Pound
Guidance in Q3 Earnings Reports May Shape Risk Sentiment Trends
Currency markets’ focus remains on a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers in Luxembourg as officials hash plans to continue fighting the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Against this backdrop, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak before the European Parliament Economy Committee while German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits Greece.
Traders continue to look for signs of reconciliation between Athens and “troika” monitors that open the door for disbursement of the latest batch of bailout funding. Guidance on the likelihood and timing of a Spanish request for a full-on rescue package is also sought.
The results of a Greek bill auction may offer a timely gauge of investors’ perception of policymakers’ progress, with markets paying eyeing average yield and bid-to-cover readings. The poster-child for the Eurozone debt crisis will attempt to sell €1 billion in 6-month paper.
The economic calendar remains relatively lackluster. UK Industrial Production is expected to decline 0.5 percent in August after surging 2.9 percent in the prior month. Meanwhile, the Visible Trade Balance deficit is expected widen to 8.5 billion. On balance, the releases are unlikely to prove formative for BOE monetary policy, meaning they will probably yield little in term of lasting British Pound direction cues.
Later in the session, the spotlight turns to the third-quarter corporate earnings docket. Chevron Corp, Yum! Brands Inc and Alcoa Inc are due to report results. All three companies are relatively sensitive to trends in the global business cycle, meaning traders will be keen to comb through their guidance on likely performance going forward to help shape risk appetite trends.
On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are trading narrowly higher, pointing to a cautiously supportive mood that may put pressure on the safe-haven US Dollar. The greenback slumped as much as 0.2 percent on average overnight as Asian stocks staged a mild recovery.
Asia Session: What Happened
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
21:00 | NZD | NZIER Business Opinion Survey (MoM) (AUG) | 8 | - | -4 |
21:45 | NZD | NZ Card Spending (MoM) (SEP) | -0.6% | - | 2.1% (R-) |
21:45 | NZD | NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (SEP) | -0.6% | -0.3% | 2.7% (R-) |
23:00 | NZD | QV House Prices (YoY) (SEP) | 5.3% | - | 4.8% |
23:01 | GBP | RICS House Price Balance (SEP) | -15% | -2% | -18% (R+) |
23:01 | GBP | BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (SEP) | 1.5% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (AUG) | -644.5B | -628.6B | -373.6B |
23:50 | JPY | Current Account Total (¥) (AUG) | 454.7B | 421.1B | 625.4B |
23:50 | JPY | Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (AUG) | 722.3B | 520.0B | 335.4B |
23:50 | JPY | Current Account Balance (YoY) (AUG) | 4.2% | -3.7% | -40.6% |
0:30 | AUD | NAB Business Conditions (SEP) | -3 | - | 0 (R-) |
0:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence (SEP) | 0 | - | -3 (R-) |
4:30 | JPY | Bankruptcies (YoY) (SEP) | -7.0% | - | -5.8% |
5:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Current (SEP) | 41.2 | - | 43.6 |
5:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (SEP) | 43.5 | - | 43.6 |
Euro Session: What to Expect
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
6:45 | EUR | French Central Government Balance (€) (AUG) | - | -85.5B | Low |
6:45 | EUR | French Trade Balance (€) (AUG) | -5000M | -4271M | Low |
7:30 | EUR | ECB’s Draghi Speaks at EU Parliament Econ. Comm. | - | - | Medium |
8:30 | EUR | Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (2Q) | - | 8.0% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM) (AUG) | -0.7% | 3.2% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (YoY) (AUG) | -0.7% | -0.5% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG) | -0.5% | 2.9% | Medium |
8:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG) | -1.1% | -0.8% | Medium |
8:30 | GBP | Visible Trade Balance (£) (AUG) | -8500 | -7149 | Medium |
8:30 | GBP | Total Trade Balance (£) (AUG) | -2380 | -1517 | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Trade Balance Non EU (£) (AUG) | -4000 | -2877 | Low |
9:10 | EUR | Greece to Sell €1B in 6-mo Bills | - | - | Medium |
10:30 | EUR | German Chancellor Merkel Visits Greece | - | - | Medium |
Critical Levels
CCY | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
EURUSD | 1.2921 | 1.3032 |
GBPUSD | 1.5984 | 1.6107 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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