Factors to Know Ahead of Ollie's Bargain (OLLI) Q3 Earnings

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. OLLI is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers on Dec 6 before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $470.9 million, indicating an increase of 12.7% from the prior-year quarter.

The bottom line of this extreme-value retailer of brand-name merchandise is anticipated to have increased year over year. We note that the Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share has risen by a couple of cents over the past seven days. The figure suggests a sharp increase from 37 cents reported in the year-ago period.

The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.3%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Harrisburg, PA-based company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.8%.

Key Factors to Consider

Ollie's Bargain’s business operating model of “buying cheap and selling cheap,” cost-containment efforts, focus on store productivity and the expansion of the customer loyalty program, Ollie's Army, are likely to have contributed to the top-line performance.

The company’s focus on value-driven merchandise assortments positioned it well to capitalize on opportunities in the marketplace and effectively meet consumer demand. Ollie's Army continued to be a major sales driver, with membership increasing continuously. We expect comparable store sales growth of 2.6% for the third quarter.

While the aforementioned factors raise optimism about the outcome, margins still remain an area to watch. Any deleverage in SG&A expenses due to higher selling expenses associated with new store unit growth, as well as investments in wages and higher utility costs, may have a direct bearing on margins.  We expect SG&A expenses to increase 12.4% in the quarter and deleverage 30 basis points as a percentage of total revenues.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Ollie's Bargain this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Ollie's Bargain has a Zacks Rank #3 but an Earnings ESP of -1.12%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Dollar Tree DLTR currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.51% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of $2.65 suggests a rise from $2.04 reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dollar Tree’s top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $8.64 billion, which indicates a rise of 12% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

Costco COST currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.98% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $3.44 suggests a rise of 11% from the year-ago reported number.

Costco’s top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $57.54 billion, which calls for an increase of 5.7% from the prior-year quarter. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.1%, on average.

lululemon athletica LULU currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.19% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of $2.27 suggests a rise from $2.00 reported in the year-ago quarter.

lululemon’s top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.19 billion, which indicates a rise of 17.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. lululemon has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.8%, on average.

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