The National Baseball Hall of Fame should get three, perhaps even four, new members Tuesday as results of the 2019 vote are announced.
Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay and Edgar Martinez look like sure things at this point, with Mike Mussina on the cusp of induction but still something of a question mark until we see the final numbers. Of course, that’s only part of the annual Hall of Fame story.
There are the controversial names on the ballot, players whose results this year could point to Cooperstown in upcoming years and players who are simply hoping to get enough votes to stay on the ballot.
That means there are storylines abound for Hall of Fame announcement day. The results will be announced at 6 p.m. ET by the Baseball Writers Association of America, broadcast live on MLB Network.
Here’s what you need to know before the announcement:
1. Mariano Rivera could be the first unanimous Hall of Famer
Never has anyone gotten 100 percent of the vote for Cooperstown. Ken Griffey Jr. was the closest with 99.32 percent, having missed three ballots. So far, given what we know from the 50 percent of ballots or so that have been made public, Rivera is at 100 percent.
The data comes from the Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker, which tallies every ballot made public by BBWAA voters and gives us a good idea of what to expect heading into announcement day. In this case, we know Rivera is getting in, but the question is whether someone will snub him.
Hall of Fame voters — particularly the ones who don’t go public with their ballots — have been known to take some odd stands over the years. And we’ve already seen one voter say he’d rather not cast a ballot than snub Rivera, simply because he doesn’t know how to evaluate closers. And there are still other people who think that if Willie Mays (or any other legendary player you’d prefer to name) didn’t get 100 percent, then nobody should.
So, on the Rivera front, the biggest question is if he’ll get every vote and if not, how close he gets.
2. Mussina and Halladay, a tale of two starters
Roy Halladay is on pace to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He’d be the sixth player that the BBWAA voted in during a normal election after his death and the first in more than 60 years. Rabbit Maranville was the last one is 1954.
Halladay is hovering around 92 percent on public ballots, and it would take a massive freefall for him to not get 75 percent. Mussina’s vote tally is going to be much tighter. In his sixth season, Mussina is getting the most support he’s ever gotten. He’s at 81.6 percent on public ballots, which is a good sign but not a sure thing. Given what we’ve seen over the years, the final numbers drop around 5 percent when all the ballots are revealed, which would put Mussina right in the danger zone.
But if Halladay gets in, Mussina has a pretty solid case. Halladay’s career numbers are 203 wins, a 3.38 ERA, a 64.3 career WAR and 2,117 strikeouts in 2,749.1 innings. Mussina has a higher ERA but better everything else: 270 wins, 3.68 ERA, 83.0 WAR and 2,813 strikeouts in 3,562.2 innings.
Even if Mussina doesn’t get 75 percent this year, it seems unlikely that he’d miss out in 2020.
3. Edgar Martinez and the 10th-year surge
Edgar Martinez also looks like a lock for the Hall of Fame in his 10th and final year on the ballot. His case had long been polarizing because some voters didn’t want to endorse a DH. The public data suggests there’s been enough of a sway to drown out the detractors. After finishing at 70.4 percent last season — just short of the necessary 75 percent — Martinez has gained 25 voters this season, which puts him above 90 percent on the public ballots. He needs only about 57 percent of the remaining ballots to hit 75 percent.
The final-year surge is how Tim Raines got in a few years ago, and now that it’s working for Edgar, the next player in position could be Larry Walker. Walker is similar to Raines and Martinez in that advanced metrics have helped bring his Cooperstown case into focus. He’s gained a lot of supporters the last few years and is currently at 65.4 percent on public ballots after finishing at 34 percent last year. He won’t reach 75 percent this year but could be in position for that final-year surge in 2020.
4. The controversial trio: Bonds, Clemens and Schilling
Two all-time greats tied to performance-enhancing drugs and one very good pitcher whose lack of a filter has hurt his cause over the years. The reasons are different, but Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling continue to be the most polarizing players on the ballot.
None of them are getting in this year, but they could be getting closer to 75 percent.
They’re each in their seventh year and each right around 70 percent on public ballots. For Schilling, that’s meant a big bump (+16 votes this year) and for Bonds and Clemens, it’s meant another gradual increase (+3 each).
None of them have ever finished above 60 percent, but if they do this year — it’s very possible — it could put them one or two years away from Cooperstown.
5. Five stars in the danger zone
The other Cooperstown race is on the other end of the spectrum. The race to avoid the bottom. Five percent is needed to stay on the ballot and we could lose a number of notable names this year who just can’t muster the vote on a ballot that remains packed.
Here they are, with their percentages and years on the ballot:
• Lance Berkman — 0.9 percent (first year)
• Andruw Jones – 8.3 percent (second year)
• Roy Oswalt – 0.9 percent (first year)
• Andy Pettitte – 6.9 percent (first year)
• Sammy Sosa – 11.5 percent (seventh year)
It doesn’t look great for any of those first-timers. Sosa should be fine, but Jones looks to be right on the fringe too.
That’s the other side of Hall of Fame day. It’s celebration day for some, disappointment day for so many others.
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