Flowers Foods, Inc.'s (NYSE:FLO) Has Performed Well But Fundamentals Look Varied: Is There A Clear Direction For The Stock?
Most readers would already know that Flowers Foods' (NYSE:FLO) stock increased by 3.8% over the past three months. However, the company's financials look a bit inconsistent and market outcomes are ultimately driven by long-term fundamentals, meaning that the stock could head in either direction. Specifically, we decided to study Flowers Foods' ROE in this article.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
View our latest analysis for Flowers Foods
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Flowers Foods is:
9.1% = US$123m ÷ US$1.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.09 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Flowers Foods' Earnings Growth And 9.1% ROE
At first glance, Flowers Foods' ROE doesn't look very promising. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 14%. Although, we can see that Flowers Foods saw a modest net income growth of 5.5% over the past five years. So, the growth in the company's earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.
We then compared Flowers Foods' net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 15% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Flowers Foods is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Flowers Foods Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
Flowers Foods has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 83%, meaning that it is left with only 17% to reinvest into its business. This implies that the company has been able to achieve decent earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.
Moreover, Flowers Foods is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 74% of its profits over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Flowers Foods is predicted to rise to 20% despite there being not much change expected in its payout ratio.
Summary
On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Flowers Foods can be open to many interpretations. While the company has posted a decent earnings growth, We do feel that the earnings growth number could have been even higher, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings at a higher rate of return. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
