Ford (F) Lines Up for Q3 Earnings: A Peek at Key Predictions
Ford F is slated to release third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 26, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s earnings is pegged at 40 cents a share. The bottom-line projection implies year-over-year growth of 33.3%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s third-quarter earnings per share has moved north by 6 cents in the past 90 days.
The U.S. auto biggie topped earnings estimates in the last reported quarter amid higher-than-expected automotive revenues. Over the trailing four quarters, Ford surpassed earnings estimates twice for as many misses, the average surprise being 20.1%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Ford Motor Company Price and EPS Surprise
Ford Motor Company price-eps-surprise | Ford Motor Company Quote
Q2 Highlights
Ford reported adjusted earnings of 72 cents per share for second-quarter 2023, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 51 cents and increased from 68 cents recorded in the year-ago quarter. The company’s consolidated second-quarter revenues came in at $44,954 million, rising 11.8% year over year.
Ford reported adjusted free cash flow (FCF) of $2,919 million during the quarter. It had cash and cash equivalents of $26,406 million as of Jun 30, 2023. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, totaled $19.17 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2023.
Factors at Play
The U.S. auto giant now reports its automotive results under three business segments — Ford Model e, Ford Blue and Ford Pro. While Ford Blue focuses on the firm’s legacy gas-powered business, Ford Model e focuses on electric vehicles (EVs), advanced technologies and several related aspects to support electrification plans and Ford Pro deals with commercial vehicles and services.
Ford saw its US sales increase 7.7% year over year to 500,504 units. Sales of the Ford brand rose 8%, while that of Lincoln increased 1.8%. Sales of hybrid vehicles, ICE and EVs in the United States came in at 34,861, 444,681 and 20,962 units, up 41.4%, 5.4% and 14.8%, respectively, on a yearly basis. The third quarter of 2023 marked record EV sales for Ford on the soaring popularity of the Mustang Mach-E and E Transit.
Our estimate for global wholesale shipments from Ford Blue, Ford Model e and Ford Pro segments is pegged at 750,000, 43,000 and 382,000 units, implying a year-over-year uptick of 1.2%, 73.8% and 19%, respectively. However, we expect total automotive revenue to decline 1.6% year over year in the third quarter of 2023. While higher year-over-year shipments bode well, price cuts by Ford are likely to have impacted automotive revenues for the quarter under discussion. For instance, in July, Ford reduced its electric F-150 pickup truck prices. The F-150 Lightning Pro base model prices were slashed by 17%, from $59,974 to $49,995. Pricing on its Platinum model was cut by $6000, from $98,074 to $91,995.
Meanwhile, the combination of Ford Pro's strong order books and the successful launch of the all-new Super Duty set the stage for promising results for the Ford Pro segment. Our forecast for third-quarter Ford Blue and Ford Pro adjusted EBIT implies an uptick of 6.2% and a whopping 370.1% on a year-over-year basis. However, we expect the Model e segment to incur an operating loss of $1.43 billion amid high costs.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Ford for the to-be-reported quarter, as it has the right combination of the two key ingredients. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here.
Earnings ESP: Ford has an Earnings ESP of +14.57%. The Most Accurate Estimate is pegged 6 cents higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: F currently sports a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few other players from the auto space that, according to our model, also have the right elements to post an earnings beat this time.
Oshkosh Corp OSK will release third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 26. The company has an Earnings ESP of +8.24% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OSK’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.18 per share and $2.46 billion, respectively. Oshkosh surpassed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters for as many misses, with the average surprise being 27.45%.
Lear Corp. LEA will release third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 26. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LEA’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.56 per share and $5.48 billion, respectively. Lear surpassed earnings estimates in the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 8.07%.
Cummins CMI is expected to report third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 2. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.48% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cummins’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $4.70 per share and $8.19 billion, respectively. CMI missed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and surpassed once, with the average negative surprise being 5.51%.
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