Fresenius Medical Care AG (ETR:FME) Just Released Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
Shareholders might have noticed that Fresenius Medical Care AG (ETR:FME) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.5% to €35.90 in the past week. Fresenius Medical Care reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of €19b and statutory earnings per share of €1.70, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Fresenius Medical Care
Following last week's earnings report, Fresenius Medical Care's 20 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €19.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 45% to €2.46. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €19.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.49 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €40.65, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Fresenius Medical Care analyst has a price target of €71.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €26.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Fresenius Medical Care's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 3.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 0.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that Fresenius Medical Care is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Fresenius Medical Care's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Fresenius Medical Care. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Fresenius Medical Care going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Fresenius Medical Care that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
